Epic Rain Coming to LA
There is a potentially historic winter rain event waiting on Los Angeles's doorstep - set to arrive later tonight.
Nearly all of the models - global and mesoscale - bring an initial front into the Santa Barbara region later tonight. This front will stall out, but not before dumping an inch or so of rain as far south as Ventura. The front will stall and then be joined by a very moist atmospheric river with precipitable water values exceeding 1.2" aimed DIRECTLY at Los Angeles:
This reinvigorated front will slowly push southward through Los Angeles. During this time, a surface low will develop off the central coast. This will draw up southerly air, and very SW winds will enhance orographic precipitation. The front will push a potent cold front through the Los Angeles area Friday. The heaviest rain in Ventura County will begin in the morning, peaking around 2pm, the heaviest rain in Los Angeles County will begin around noon and peak during the rush hour.
This is a potentially dangerous situation.
Flash floods during rush hour will snarl traffic. Heavy rain rates on saturated ground will surely provoke multiple mudslides. Please take precautions!
The front will clear the area early on Sunday, with only lingering showers, but not before dropping upwards of 4" of rain in the lower elevations and as much as 8-10" in the foothills and mountains:
Please stay safe, and stay tuned!