Winter is not giving up.

El Niño came and went with what I guess we'd call an.... underwhelming whimper? Through April 6, Los Angeles proper (Downtown USC) has picked up 6.59" of rain - well below the average. San Francisco has fared a bit better, with the SFO airport picking up 16.36" of rain through April 6:

But with spring now in full swing, it appears as though winter has decided to make one final comeback attempt.

Now, let's be clear - It would need to rain about 7.5" between now and October 1 to even reach the "average" rainfall in Los Angeles (Keep in mind that June through September combined average less than 1" of rain). To say that that is unlikely is an understatement. However, as we know: every drop counts.

Rain this weekend (and beyond?) in the southland

As the satellite shows the subtropical jet is raging and an active weather pattern for our area should persist through next week:

 Exactly how many storms this active pattern may bring us is still up for debate. Right now, the GFS long-range weather model is forecasting 3 major storms to impact the area through Friday, April 15. The latest run of the GFS is forecasting between 2 and 3 inches of rain over the next 8 days. (Hint: that would be a lot of rain for April):

In the near term...

Both the GFS and the higher-resolution, mesoscale NAM model are forecasting some light (to moderate) showers in the area (though not everywhere) for today into tomorrow, with a heavier period of rain, wind and a frontal passage for mid-day Saturday:

TODAY: Light to moderate showers (especially in the foothills/mountains), with up to 0.5" accumulations in higher terrain. Possible light showers in the lower terrains

TOMORROW: Light showers continuing, possibly some shower activity in the lower terrains. At most 0.25" accumulations.

SATURDAY: Moderate to heavy rain beginning around daybreak and continuing through late afternoon, tapering off in the evening. Accumulations in the LA basin between 0.5 and 1.0", with higher totals in the foothills.

Total accumulations in the basin should approach 1":


BEYOND THIS WEEKEND: Light shower activity may continue through Monday before a brief clearing/warming on Tuesday and Wednesday and then a potentially strong storm Wednesday night into Thursday.

Stay tuned :)

Mika ToscaComment